Ben Powell of BlackRock's research unit said the Bank of Japan, after lifting rates to the highest level since 1995, is likely to be cautious about further hikes. Domestically, solid wage growth, persistent core inflation and deeply negative real rates support a case for tightening. Externally, hopes of cooling Middle East tensions reduce the risk of a prolonged energy shock and should help restrain imported inflation. Powell noted inflation still risks running above the BOJ's 2% target. BlackRo

Ben Powell of BlackRock's research unit said the Bank of Japan, after lifting rates to the highest level since 1995, is likely to be cautious about further hikes. Domestically, solid wage growth, persistent core inflation and deeply negative real rates support a case for tightening. Externally, hopes of cooling Middle East tensions reduce the risk of a prolonged energy shock and should help restrain imported inflation. Powell noted inflation still risks running above the BOJ's 2% target. BlackRock maintains an underweight in JGBs, expecting further rate moves, an elevated global term premium and large issuance to continue pressuring yields higher. Over a 6–12 month horizon BlackRock is neutral on Japanese equities due to ongoing import energy cost headwinds; over the longer term it remains overweight versus benchmark as inflation and wage trends support corporate profitability.