ECB Governing Council member Escrivá warned that, despite an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, complex energy-supply disruptions are likely to persist. An Iran‑US agreement and investor bets that the three‑month conflict is winding down have pushed oil prices lower, but Escrivá said risks are not removed and markets still broadly expect further ECB rate hikes. He said: "It is unclear whether markets fully reflect the supply disruptions that have occurred, how large their impact will be,

Commerzbank expects Brent crude to remain around $85/bbl through year-end, commodity research head Thu Lan Nguyen said. She warned US‑Iran talks on a new nuclear deal are likely to be bumpy and the bank is cautious about forecasts of oil falling well below pre‑war levels. Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully and sustainably reopens, shipping and Gulf energy exports will take substantial time to normalize. Commerzbank added that rapid inventory rebuilding could lift near‑term demand and that countries most affected by disruption may seek higher strategic stocks, amplifying restocking demand.

日本10年期國債收益率上升5個基點，至2.625%。