Kpler analysts say reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could produce an initial rapid spike in tanker activity. About 118 laden vessels currently trapped inside the Persian Gulf could depart first, driving a marked but short-lived rise in transits over the first 10–15 days. The key uncertainty is how quickly additional ships will re-enter the corridor. In an upside scenario, if security concerns are fully lifted, flows could rebound rapidly and briefly exceed pre-war levels, though that is judged

Kpler analysts say reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could produce an initial rapid spike in tanker activity. About 118 laden vessels currently trapped inside the Persian Gulf could depart first, driving a marked but short-lived rise in transits over the first 10–15 days. The key uncertainty is how quickly additional ships will re-enter the corridor. In an upside scenario, if security concerns are fully lifted, flows could rebound rapidly and briefly exceed pre-war levels, though that is judged unlikely. In the base case, recovery is gradual: transits rise from roughly 15 vessels per day initially to about 40 per day by month-end, with tankers making up about 60%.