CITIC Securities says global economic resilience is being tested by the Middle
East conflict; H2 will be dominated by coexisting supply shocks, policy
constraints and investment support, with the persistence of oil-price shocks the
primary variable for the global macro path. For China, policymakers are likely
to shift H2 focus toward structural reform—curbing domestic over-competition
(anti-involution) and enforcing carbon assessments to optimize supply, while
using fiscal and tax reform to steer demand. In China’s A-share market, AI plus
energy/chemicals form a new barbell. Investment stance: keep a global lens on
China and adopt K-shaped positioning rather than simple bull/bear views; move
from “building AI” to “adapting to AI” in technology exposure. The long-term
investment case remains a re-rating of China’s advantaged manufacturing pricing
power; priority sectors are new energy, chemicals, nonferrous metals and power
equipment. On the offensive side, monitor domestic AI progress and overweight
the domestic compute chain and cloud platforms. Continue selective overweight of
low-valuation names, notably brokers and insurers.
