UBS, Goldman, Barclays, PIMCO and other institutions expect the Fed’s SEP/dot
plot to show higher inflation and a more cautious policy path, pushing rate cuts
later or reducing the number of cuts implied earlier this year. UBS: expects
inflation forecasts to be revised up; most FOMC members see no rate cuts before
2028, though the median could still show a single 2028 cut while overall policy
remains restrictive. Goldman: says Waller may not submit a personal dot plot;
expects the median to show rates unchanged through 2026 with one cut in 2027 and
another in 2028, and anticipates 2026 GDP and unemployment slightly lower but
inflation materially higher. Barclays: expects a hawkish tilt — rates held all
of 2026, only one cut in 2027, and no easing in 2028. Jefferies: flags Waller’s
rejection of forward guidance as likely, implying a shorter FOMC statement and
reduced SEP detail. Capital Economics: expects Waller will decline to provide a
personal policy path but will still be pressed on his views at the press
conference. JP Morgan: expects Waller to submit a personal forecast; not doing
so would signal clear dissent from his committee leadership. TD Securities and
BofA: anticipate Waller will not submit a personal dot plot; BofA expects growth
forecasts to be trimmed to ~2.1% while inflation is revised up and unemployment
is unchanged or slightly lower. Rabobank: sees risk skewed toward stickier
inflation, fewer cuts or even upside to rates rather than a quick improvement.
Nordea: expects removal of the intra-year cut scenario priced in March and even
some calls for hikes. BNY Mellon: expects a modestly hawkish adjustment, likely
dropping the previous expectation of a 2026 cut. PIMCO: expects a significant
hawkish shift in the dot plot; several committee members may show projections
for higher 2026 rates even if the median remains unchanged.
