Norbert Rucker at Julius Baer said energy supply should recover quickly if the
US and Iran reach a temporary peace agreement. The oil plunge below $80 “appears
to have been driven by financial markets and rapid position changes by hedge
funds and algorithmic traders in futures.” Limited infrastructure damage and
continued production during the conflict, plus a gradual resumption of Strait of
Hormuz traffic and wider use of alternative export routes, should support a
swift supply rebound. Julius Baer sees the energy market trending toward
surplus, is cautious on oil and neutral on gas.
