Oraclum Capital CIO Vuk Vukovic says the market’s immediate focus is political
risk rather than inflation or rates. He notes the new Fed chair took office amid
accelerating inflation—CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%—which constrains the Fed’s room to
deliver any previously promised rate cuts. Recent easing in geopolitical
tensions, notably a thaw in US‑Iran pressures that has pushed oil prices lower,
gives the chair breathing room. Vukovic does not expect hawkish signals at this
meeting and judges a dovish opening is the most likely path. If the chair
abandons rigid forward guidance, markets will shift to other signal
sources—trade, foreign policy and fiscal measures will gain weight. Whether that
communication approach succeeds will be the new chair’s first major test.
