The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at the new chair's first meeting. The
chair said the Fed is united and committed to controlling inf. He ended the
practice of issuing forward guidance ahead of the statement but the Fed released
a dot plot showing nine officials expect rate hikes by year‑end, eight expect no
change and one expects a cut. The chair did not submit a personal projection and
said markets should price policy based on incoming data rather than Fed
forecasts. He declined to say whether he has spoken to President Trump since
taking office; Trump, who nominated him, has pushed for cuts but recently said
the chair should 'do what he wants'. The dot plot’s distribution and removal of
front‑loaded guidance shift emphasis to data‑dependent market pricing; the
chair’s political independence will be a follow‑on market risk.
