Market views split after a Fed official’s 'silence is golden' line leaves the
policy path unclear. Goldman: if inflation remains elevated by September, the
Fed could hike as early as September/this autumn and may follow with one–two
additional hikes. Former Fed economist Sam: no clear trigger now to respond to
supply-driven inflation, but the case for action is building. Huatai Securities:
no rate move before September; ~50% chance of a December hike; cumulative two
hikes possible by end of next year. Danske Bank: sees two hikes possible over
the next 12 months, with a September move if data stay stronger than expected.
BNP Paribas: warns the market shock could come if an individual Fed official
proves more hawkish than Powell; projects three consecutive hikes beginning in
December. On the dovish side, Nordea: still sees scope for two cuts but pushed
into 2027 with a first cut at the March 2027 meeting. Citi: now forecasts 25bp
cuts in Oct and Dec 2026 and Jan 2027 (revising earlier calls for cuts this
year). UBS: even if a US‑Iran deal eases oil, the Fed will wait for confirmation
that inflation is past the threat—cuts only from March 2027 in UBS’s view.
Barclays expects rates to remain unchanged through 2027. JP Morgan: Fed unlikely
to move rates this year as the committee appears patient. Nomura: the dot plot
has not fully priced oil weakness after US‑Iran talks; future policy will hinge
on non‑energy price trends. CITIC Securities: leans toward the cited official
not supporting a year‑end hike and expects the FOMC split to converge toward the
chair; anticipates unchanged policy this year. China International Capital Co:
expects no rate moves this year but rising upside risk next year if US growth
accelerates on AI capex. ING: does not see a current need to hike but cannot
rule out future hikes and says any hike would likely be reversed quickly.
