Germany's Ifo Institute cut its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.2% in March and left its forecast for this year unchanged at 0.8%.

On June 18, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a routine briefing that China welcomes the reported signing by the US and Iran of a first-phase memorandum of understanding, saying it can help ease tensions and consolidate a ceasefire. China urged all parties, including the US and Iran, to honor commitments, warned that force cannot solve problems and said equal, rational and pragmatic negotiations are the proper route, calling on both sides to work toward positive outcomes in second-phase talks.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, saying the strength of rising inflationary pressure remains uncertain and a hike would be premature. Chief economist Huw Pill and member Green preferred a 25bp rise. The 7-2 split matched market expectations. Governor Bailey described the committee's stance as an active hold that, relative to market pricing that expected cuts before the conflict, amounts to effective tightening. Pill and Green said a rate rise now would help anchor household inflation expectations; the BOE's quarterly survey shows household expectations at their highest since at least 2009. A preliminary US–Iran ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices would be supportive for the gas-import-dependent UK, but Bailey warned: 'Whatever happens next, higher energy prices over the past four months have already meant some inflationary pressure is in the pipeline.' The BOE now expects Q4 inflation above 3.25% (May forecast 2.8%), still below two of April's three scenario paths at 3.6–3.7%. Potential growth was nudged up to 0.2% per quarter from 0.1% previously.