CITIC Securities says this edition of the Lujiazui Forum should exert three
constructive forces on non-bank finance: capital markets supplying incremental
financing, an improved regulatory framework, and liquidity measures to curb
risk. Securities firms are the most direct beneficiaries: the STAR Market’s
fifth-set standards have been widened to cover AI large models, and combined
with derivatives liberalization and cross-border business innovation, investment
banking and FICC show clear upside. Insurance reforms to align reporting and
banking (reporting-and-banking unification) should compress channel fees and
liability costs; cleanup of disorderly competition will accelerate consolidation
and reinforce compliance advantages at top insurers. The PBOC has created a
liquidity support facility for non-banks, building a multi-layered
risk-mitigation mechanism. Direct financing’s share has overtaken bank loans for
the first time, providing structural support to brokers’ long-term ROE. Analysts
recommend focusing on leading brokerages and insurers with compliance strength.
Insurance sector valuations look attractive; current share prices overstate
near-term earnings drag from low rates and high base effects, while asset-side
recovery could boost Q2 profit growth and trigger price repair.
