Institutions expect hog production capacity drawdown to accelerate in June,
citing two drivers: sustained deep losses in pig farming and falling piglet
prices. After a May rebound, hog prices resumed sliding and since June both
self-breeding and purchased-piglet operations have lost over 300 yuan per head.
7kg piglet prices stalled at end-May and fell below 200 yuan in mid-June,
pushing the sow-to-piglet segment into loss. Market participants are confident
this will accelerate capacity exits and improve forward supply; beyond
price-driven exits, policy measures have turned to enforcement—June measures to
curb overcompetition have been given hard targets and a 'four leads' directive,
with effects likely to emerge over time.
