Bloomberg Economics has raised its UK GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.2% from 0.8% before the US-Iran ceasefire, citing lower global oil prices as a clear net positive for the UK economy. Official three-month GDP to March is due Tuesday morning. The Dan Hanson-led team now sees inflation settling at 3% versus its prior year-end 3.5% projection, and says that with inflationary pressure receding the BoE can hold rates at 3.75% so long as oil does not surge. If Brent crude remains around slightly above

Bloomberg Economics has raised its UK GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.2% from 0.8% before the US-Iran ceasefire, citing lower global oil prices as a clear net positive for the UK economy. Official three-month GDP to March is due Tuesday morning. The Dan Hanson-led team now sees inflation settling at 3% versus its prior year-end 3.5% projection, and says that with inflationary pressure receding the BoE can hold rates at 3.75% so long as oil does not surge. If Brent crude remains around slightly above $70/bbl, attention could quickly shift to the timing of further monetary easing.