Four people directly involved in the discussions said energy prices unexpectedly fell sharply last week, further reducing pressure on ECB policymakers to raise rates next month, though the case for a modest additional hike remains intact. The ECB's increase this month was aimed at preventing an Iran-war driven oil spike from lifting market inflation expectations; officials are now debating the urgency of subsequent tightening. Futures at several key maturities have fallen faster than the ECB's p

Four people directly involved in the discussions said energy prices unexpectedly fell sharply last week, further reducing pressure on ECB policymakers to raise rates next month, though the case for a modest additional hike remains intact. The ECB's increase this month was aimed at preventing an Iran-war driven oil spike from lifting market inflation expectations; officials are now debating the urgency of subsequent tightening. Futures at several key maturities have fallen faster than the ECB's previously outlined "mild" tightening scenario. Earlier concerns about fuel shortages, including jet fuel, have proved excessive as some oil producers, notably Saudi Arabia, have supplied more than expected to stabilise markets. Even after last weekend's Iran–US escalation, oil showed little reaction, suggesting normalization in energy markets.