JP Morgan strategist Ito Yukie said if Japan's Ministry of Finance uses the same
'implicit intervention' method deployed in 2024, the trigger for intervention is
likely higher now; the limited effect of the last intervention may make the
ministry more reluctant to enter the market quickly. Tuesday's moves suggested
stop-losses and option barriers around 162–162.50 were hit. State Street Global
Advisors senior fixed-income strategist Masika said the break of 162 strengthens
the view that yen weakness is momentum-driven and that 163–165 is now the next
technical and psychological target, where positioning and policy risk will
sharpen. Ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, the threshold for immediate intervention
appears slightly higher as authorities may prefer to see whether dollar strength
is fundamentals-driven. CFTC data show leveraged funds increased yen short
positions to 115,033 contracts in the week to June 23, near the highest since
November 2017.
