Bei Chen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments, said in a note that June employment growth is expected to remain strong, meaning inflation is likely to stay the primary determinant of Fed policy. He added that, given recent rises in M&A, IPOs and debt issuance, markets should watch for an acceleration in financial‑services employment. The June jobs report is due Thursday.

A monthly survey published Tuesday showed Chicago-area business activity cooled in June but remained above expectations. The Chicago business activity index fell to 56.7 from 62.7 in May; May’s reading was the highest since January 2022. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected 55. Readings above 50 signal expansion; June was the second consecutive month above 50. The decline was driven by drops in new orders and production, while gains in supplier deliveries, backlogs and employment partly offset the fall. The new orders index fell 11.7 points after a strong May increase. The production index slipped 10.4 points, nearly erasing the prior month’s gain but staying in expansion for a sixth month. The prices-paid index rose 1.6 points to its highest level since May 2022; respondents cited rising oil and metal prices as the main drivers.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts July rainfall at 94% of the long-term average.