The volatility gap between the Nasdaq‑100 and the S&P 500 has widened to its largest level since 2008 as investors ramp up purchases of Nasdaq puts, signaling heightened concern about a pullback in tech, particularly the AI sector. Semiconductor ETF SMH plunged more than 5% on Thursday, underscoring weakening momentum in recent tech leaders. Call demand has cooled but remains elevated. Analysts note summers are typically quieter, though tech volatility is expected to stay above the broad market.

The yen briefly hit its weakest level since 1986. More market-relevant than the level is that Japan has exhausted conventional policy levers yet the currency kept weakening: 1) rate hikes failed to stop the decline; 2) record defence spending did not support the yen; 3) repeated official warnings and calls for decisive action had no effect; 4) stabilising oil prices did not arrest depreciation. The common failure points to constraints in the global dollar funding system. When that system functions normally trade and credit expand, allowing currencies like the yen to appreciate; when it is strained, dollar scarcity hits economies exposed to global trade and dollar-priced imports regardless of domestic central bank policy.

早盤開盤，國內期貨主力合約漲多跌少，鈀漲超4%，碳酸鋰、液化石油氣（LPG）漲超3%，鉑、滬銀、甲醇漲超2%，瀝青、滬金漲近2%。跌幅方面，氧化鋁、多晶硅跌近2%，鐵礦石跌超1%，棕櫚油跌近1%。