ECB Governing Council member Moulin said he currently sees no second-round effects.

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin easing by Q2 2027, amounting to 75bps. NAB now forecasts AUD/USD at 0.6700 by end-2027 (previously 0.7000) and sees the pair probing at least 0.6500 at some point. NAB adds that if the RBA cuts next year while the Federal Reserve remains on hold, AUD downside would deepen.

S&P Global Italy services PMI rose to 50.2 in June from 49.4 in May, breaching the 50 expansion threshold for the first time since late-February’s US-Israel strike on Iran and signaling a slight rebound after three months of contraction. Middle East tensions showed signs of easing and the input-cost inflation gauge fell to 62.1 from 66.7 in May — still elevated but the first decline since January — while the prices-charged index eased to 52.8 from 54.1. S&P Global economist Eleanor Dennison said signs of cooling inflation should give service providers and consumers some breathing room.