Guotai Haitong said international oil prices have fallen and domestic fuel
prices are set to be reduced month-by-month. The broker notes school summer
breaks are slightly later in 2026, presales have accelerated since late June,
hotel and rail bookings are up YoY while air ticket presales lag 2025 amid
higher fares, and parent-child travel has remained strong over the past three
years and is viewed as inelastic. It expects student-driven passenger traffic to
rise from early July, pushing air fares back into positive territory; higher
flight completion rates versus Q2, together with peak-season supply-demand
support and reduced destructive price competition, should materially improve
airline operating performance.
