UOB economists say the Philippines' near-term inflation outlook faces El Nifio-related supply disruptions and Philippine peso volatility. Prolonged drought could cut agricultural output and lift food prices, especially rice and vegetables; such supply-side pressures typically persist for several quarters and could slow disinflation. Because food has a large CPI weight, El Nifio could materially affect headline inflation even as energy prices have eased. Nonetheless, after stronger-than-expected

UOB economists say the Philippines' near-term inflation outlook faces El Nifio-related supply disruptions and Philippine peso volatility. Prolonged drought could cut agricultural output and lift food prices, especially rice and vegetables; such supply-side pressures typically persist for several quarters and could slow disinflation. Because food has a large CPI weight, El Nifio could materially affect headline inflation even as energy prices have eased. Nonetheless, after stronger-than-expected disinflation over the past two months, UOB has trimmed its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 6.0% from 7.5%.