US-Iran tensions have become a catalyst for tech valuation compression. The recent AI Capex-driven rally depended on low-rate liquidity and discounted long-term cashflows; escalating tensions that raise inf upside risks have prompted a bear-steepening of the long-end US Treasury curve, lifting equity cost of capital for growth/tech. Global macro hedge funds are rapidly rebalancing—selling growth/tech and buying defensives—rotating capital into hard assets poised to benefit from higher oil prices

US-Iran tensions have become a catalyst for tech valuation compression. The recent AI Capex-driven rally depended on low-rate liquidity and discounted long-term cashflows; escalating tensions that raise inf upside risks have prompted a bear-steepening of the long-end US Treasury curve, lifting equity cost of capital for growth/tech. Global macro hedge funds are rapidly rebalancing—selling growth/tech and buying defensives—rotating capital into hard assets poised to benefit from higher oil prices and increased defense spending.