Military force is unlikely to restore regular shipping through the Strait of
Hormuz, leaving the US and Iran at risk of a prolonged 'neither peace nor war'
state. A ceasefire memorandum after US strikes on Feb. 28 used ambiguous wording
that allows both sides to continue pursuing objectives by other means.
Washington tried to increase tanker transits via the Omani-side channel,
including switching off ship transponders, but the IRGC successfully struck
several of those tankers, suggesting traffic is unlikely to return to
pre-conflict levels without further agreement. The Pentagon reportedly presented
military options to break the stalemate, but they were rejected by President
Trump; months of strikes have so far failed to produce decisive results, raising
the prospect of extended instability in the strait.
