BNP Paribas analysts say a Tesla–SpaceX merger is unlikely in the near term, citing heavy cash burn and significant regulatory risk that complicate any deal. They caution merger-driven gains in Tesla investor sentiment may be overstated and maintain an underperform rating with a PT of $280. BNP warns Tesla faces challenging KPIs over the next two years in its robo-taxi and Optimus businesses, which would pose downside risk to the core business until any SpaceX tie-up materializes.