Morgan Stanley global head of fixed-income research Andrew Sheets said the firm is monitoring three risks that could derail the US equity summer rally. First, renewed conflict with Iran — US strategic petroleum reserve is at historic lows, reducing the US ability to blunt an oil shock if hostilities escalate. Second, Federal Reserve policy — the market’s assumption that the Fed will hold rates through year-end is a key support for equities; that view could be wrong and may be reversed quickly if

Morgan Stanley global head of fixed-income research Andrew Sheets said the firm is monitoring three risks that could derail the US equity summer rally. First, renewed conflict with Iran — US strategic petroleum reserve is at historic lows, reducing the US ability to blunt an oil shock if hostilities escalate. Second, Federal Reserve policy — the market’s assumption that the Fed will hold rates through year-end is a key support for equities; that view could be wrong and may be reversed quickly if inflationary concerns prompt tightening. Third, weakening AI-related capex — Q2 earnings could show more cautious spending after recent softness in the stocks of large AI investors; because growth and earnings are highly tied to AI, a capex pullback would pose downside risk to market sentiment and forecasts.