Bahrain's Interior Ministry said it has raised the kingdom's alert level.

Analysts say Iran’s security environment is chaotic and could escalate, increasing geopolitical risk for markets. They note Iran’s military, proxy network and economy have been degraded, leaving Tehran to rely on harassment-style attacks rather than conventional power projection; US strikes so far have not reopened the Strait of Hormuz by force. Recent exchanges have not escalated to all-out war: Washington has not targeted Tehran directly and Iran’s responses have been largely limited and largely ineffective attacks on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Iran has not resumed strikes against Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Command uncertainty following an injury to Iran’s new supreme leader Mujtaba, and sharp criticism from hardline factions of last month’s memorandum with the US, raise the risk that rivals within Iran could seek to sabotage the agreement by escalating violence. Former CIA Middle East official Marc Polymeropoulos cautioned that an incident causing US military deaths could trigger a severe US response; Mehran Haghirian of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation says decision-making in Tehran is now confused and some factions benefit from prolonging the crisis.

China's Central Meteorological Observatory at 06:00 on July 12 said Typhoon Bavi weakened overnight to a severe tropical storm. At 05:00 its center was over Yiwu, Jinhua, Zhejiang (29.3°N, 120.0°E). Peripheral maximum winds were 11 on the scale (≈30 m/s) and central pressure 970 hPa. Bavi is moving northwest at 20–25 km/h, is expected to continue weakening, turn northeast on July 13 over eastern Anhui, and on July 14 move from the Shandong peninsula into the northern Yellow Sea while gradually transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.