Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions pushed oil higher and stoked speculation the Fed may
need to raise rates to curb inf. The two‑year U.S. Treasury yield, most
sensitive to rate moves, briefly rose 3bps to 4.24%, its highest since Feb 2025;
the 10‑year rose 3bps to 4.59%. Swap markets now price a near‑certain chance of
a September Fed hike versus about 66% a week ago. Market sensitivity to Iran
developments has increased after weekend attacks and strikes on Russian
refineries.
