Rising Middle East tensions have increased the risk of further jet-fuel supply
disruption, leaving Europe particularly exposed. Energy Aspects (June 18)
estimates Europe faces a Q3 jet-fuel shortfall of about 600,000 b/d, while the
US and Asia show surpluses of roughly 116,000 b/d and 425,000 b/d respectively.
European jet inventories were about 38 mln barrels in early June — Reuters
calculations indicate under 30 days of demand, the tightest among major markets.
An IEA monthly report (end-May) shows jet inventories prelim +10% YoY and
refinery output +30%, but Europe’s available buffer remains roughly one month.
Energy analyst Janiv Shah expects market tightness to persist through August.
