早盤開盤，國內期貨主力合約漲跌不一，SC原油、燃料油漲超8%，低硫燃料油（LU）漲超7%。聚丙烯（PP）、瀝青、乙二醇（EG）漲超6%。跌幅方面，滬銀跌近3%。

At the Hong Kong close the HSI rose 0.16% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.96%. MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) slid 17.13%; SERES (09927.HK) dropped 13.56%.

Korea Investment & Securities (KIS) projects SK Hynix Q2 operating profit at KRW 60.4 trillion, about 8% below the KRW 65 trillion market consensus. KIS says company fundamentals remain solid and profitability is strong, but HBM long-term contracts mute earnings cyclicality and HBM4 lacks the same short-term spot-price upside as commodity DRAM. KIS warns HBM4 pricing is highly uncertain: HBM4 is highly customized and includes logic units, so realized prices will depend on factors including NVIDIA contract pricing, HBM4 performance, power consumption and yields, allocation of advanced-packaging costs, whether NVIDIA will pay a supply-stability premium, and SK Hynix’s eventual order share — none of which are fully transparent. KIS likely used conservative HBM price and margin assumptions, which helps explain its below-consensus Q2 call. Crucially, ‘‘average selling price reverting to market average’’ should be read as SK Hynix’s overall DRAM blended ASP growth converging toward the market average as HBM4 scales, not HBM4 falling to commodity DRAM price levels. Memory fundamentals remain strong; main downside risk is macro.