June CPI likely reflects a clear statistical lag: headline may drop from May’s 4.2% to roughly 3.8% mainly due to a near-term cooling in energy, not a durable easing of inflation. The Cleveland Fed model projects about 3.9% headline and core CPI around 2.9%, indicating persistent price pressure. Energy weakness could improve nominal inflation, but housing, services and wages continue to support core; the NY Fed survey shows 1- and 3-year inflation expectations rising, so the Fed will need to jud

U.S. June inflation is expected to moderate, but with the Middle East conflict unresolved this is unlikely to ease household pressure or rule out another Federal Reserve rate increase this year. The anticipated slowdown in CPI largely reflects gasoline retreating from multi-year highs, but a U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed last week and pump prices have climbed again; AAA says the national average for regular gasoline rose to $3.87/gal on Monday. Boston College economist Brian Bethune says consumer pain has only marginally eased and households remain under heavy strain. KPMG chief economist SWONK warns overall prices continue to accumulate and isolated supermarket discounts will do little to lower total household spending while other cost pressures persist.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it has closed its probe into the anomaly on SpaceX’s Starship 12th flight, clearing a regulatory obstacle for the 13th test flight planned for this week.