CITIC Securities says June US CPI came in broadly below expectations: retail gasoline fell, core services were flat MoM, and second‑round inflation effects were weak. The firm assesses inflation lacks persistence; headline CPI YoY has passed this cycle’s peak, should drift down modestly in Q3 with a trough in September, rise to a secondary peak by year‑end and then fall sharply by March next year. CITIC still expects the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged through the year and sees room for deriv

CITIC Securities says June US CPI came in broadly below expectations: retail gasoline fell, core services were flat MoM, and second‑round inflation effects were weak. The firm assesses inflation lacks persistence; headline CPI YoY has passed this cycle’s peak, should drift down modestly in Q3 with a trough in September, rise to a secondary peak by year‑end and then fall sharply by March next year. CITIC still expects the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged through the year and sees room for derivatives‑implied hike probabilities to be revised lower. Market implications: US Treasuries are not attractive for allocation trades—short‑duration better than long‑duration; the dollar is unlikely to sustain a strong rally but retains support; US tech equities remain attractive.