China International Capital Co reports US June CPI (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.4% MoM and 3.5% YoY; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY — both below consensus. Energy price declines were the main driver, but renewed US–Iran tensions raise the risk of energy-driven upside to inflation. AI-related inflationary effects are emerging: upstream hardware supply–demand mismatches, rising software and peripheral prices, and AI-driven capex boosting aggregate demand could make core inflation stickier.

China International Capital Co reports US June CPI (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.4% MoM and 3.5% YoY; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY — both below consensus. Energy price declines were the main driver, but renewed US–Iran tensions raise the risk of energy-driven upside to inflation. AI-related inflationary effects are emerging: upstream hardware supply–demand mismatches, rising software and peripheral prices, and AI-driven capex boosting aggregate demand could make core inflation stickier. June disinflation supports the Fed holding in July, but recent Waller comments indicate the Fed is reassessing pre-emptive hikes. The firm retains a baseline view of no rate hikes this year, but warns the threshold for tightening has fallen; one to two hotter inflation prints could prompt the Fed to reopen rate-hike discussions.