ING says the BOC faces a high bar to adopt a materially hawkish stance and no surprises are expected at tonight's meeting. Unless oil rebounds to April–May levels, inflation looks too mild to warrant a rate hike, especially given downside employment and activity risks from USMCA uncertainty. ING added that the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt and higher oil have supported the CAD short term, but USMCA-related risk premiums should rise into Q3; ING expects USD/CAD to remain above 1.40 in the coming mont

ING says the BOC faces a high bar to adopt a materially hawkish stance and no surprises are expected at tonight's meeting. Unless oil rebounds to April–May levels, inflation looks too mild to warrant a rate hike, especially given downside employment and activity risks from USMCA uncertainty. ING added that the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt and higher oil have supported the CAD short term, but USMCA-related risk premiums should rise into Q3; ING expects USD/CAD to remain above 1.40 in the coming months.