Spot silver fell below $58/oz, down 1.19% intraday.

ECB staff say geopolitical uncertainty reduced loan demand from euro-area exporters to the US and tightened credit conditions. Economists led by Petra Köhler-Ulbrich say European automakers — among the firms most exposed to tariffs — faced tighter lending standards, compounding existing structural problems. Some banks left formal lending terms unchanged but stepped up monitoring of affected firms. The staff estimate the impact on credit peaked April–October 2025 and eased later that year after a summer preliminary US–EU trade framework improved sentiment and reduced policy uncertainty. The note did not reference recent US–Iran tensions but warned such shocks could complicate recovery. Policymakers are weighing that downside risk against inflation ahead of next week’s rate decision.

Tony Welch of SignatureFD says weak June CPI strengthens the case that markets have overestimated the odds of a near-term Fed rate hike. Futures now show a low probability of a move this month, though CME Group pricing still leaves at least one hike this year possible. Welch says inflation is trending down even allowing for fuel swings and that wage growth is not broad enough to sustain economy-wide inflation. He expects Fed Chair Warsh to use his rhetoric to help anchor inflation expectations near the Fed’s 2% target.