Middle East sovereign bond spreads over US Treasuries widened to 402bps — their
highest since Oct 2022 — after fighting resumed in the US-Iran conflict. A
JPMorgan index shows average spreads broadened about 20bps in the week after
Trump said the ceasefire "may be over", marking the steepest YTD rise in the
region since 2018. Investors are now demanding the largest risk premium since
Oct 2022 to finance Middle Eastern governments, shifting capital allocation away
from pre-war themes such as Dubai property and Riyadh's Vision 2030 toward
geopolitics. Tellimer head of emerging markets equity and geopolitical strategy
Hasnain Malik said investors had been "overly optimistic" about the April
ceasefire.
