TIMIRAOS projects that converting PPI and CPI forecasts to a PCE basis implies US June core PCE will rise 0.18% MoM (3.3% YoY), the smallest monthly gain since November; June headline PCE is expected to fall 0.07% MoM, lowering 12‑month PCE inflation to 3.7%.

2026-07-20

TIMIRAOS projects that converting PPI and CPI forecasts to a PCE basis implies US June core PCE will rise 0.18% MoM (3.3% YoY), the smallest monthly gain since November; June headline PCE is expected to fall 0.07% MoM, lowering 12‑month PCE inflation to 3.7%.