Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Madison Cartwright said the Middle East conflict is likely to persist. CBA's baseline assigns a 55% probability the war will continue at current intensity for at least the next two months. The bank expects diplomatic outcomes to become more feasible after two months and that negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be possible. CBA assigns a 15% probability of a diplomatic breakthrough and new ceasefire within two months and a 30% probability

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Madison Cartwright said the Middle East conflict is likely to persist. CBA's baseline assigns a 55% probability the war will continue at current intensity for at least the next two months. The bank expects diplomatic outcomes to become more feasible after two months and that negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be possible. CBA assigns a 15% probability of a diplomatic breakthrough and new ceasefire within two months and a 30% probability of further escalation in that period.