China's finance ministry said in 1H the more active fiscal policy supported major strategic tasks and safeguarded and improved livelihoods. The ministry accelerated budget disbursements: it completed budget approvals for all central departments by end-March, and as of end-June had issued 9.4 tln yuan in central-to-local transfer payments, equal to 90.3% of the year's initial budget and 0.5ppt ahead of the same point last year.

Santander CIB global head of economics Antonio Garcia Pascual says euro-area short-term rates are likely to trade within a confined range. Markets price the ECB deposit rate around 2.50–2.75%; Pascual says the range should remain stable provided oil prices stay within the ECB’s mild and baseline scenarios. Santander CIB sees tactical opportunities to go long the short end at current market levels. The ECB raised rates 25bp in June to a 2.25% deposit rate; markets expect policy to be left unchanged at Thursday’s decision.

Moonshot AI is in talks for a final pre-IPO funding round seeking up to a $50 bln valuation, people familiar with the matter said. The company expects to close a financing round launched this summer—at about a $31.5 bln valuation—within days and will immediately open talks with potential investors on a new round that could be its last capital raise before a Hong Kong listing. Moonshot AI plans to complete an offshore red-chip restructuring by month-end to enable onshore financing and IPO preparation and could list in Hong Kong as soon as this year.