ING economist James Smith says surging AI-driven demand and a global storage-chip shortage are beginning to lift UK inflation. June headline CPI fell to a 15-month low but core CPI was slightly above expectations; portable device prices rose 22% month-on-month, the largest monthly move since the series began in 2015. With food and services inflation cooling, ING sees the Bank of England unlikely to hike near term and expects rates to be held through 2026, with gradual cuts considered from next s

ING economist James Smith says surging AI-driven demand and a global storage-chip shortage are beginning to lift UK inflation. June headline CPI fell to a 15-month low but core CPI was slightly above expectations; portable device prices rose 22% month-on-month, the largest monthly move since the series began in 2015. With food and services inflation cooling, ING sees the Bank of England unlikely to hike near term and expects rates to be held through 2026, with gradual cuts considered from next spring.