WBG chief economist Gill said escalation of the Middle East war and related supply disruptions could lift inf and push interest rates higher.

ING said in a July 21 report that new U.S. investment incentives should support primary aluminum smelting capacity in the long run but will not materially alter U.S. import dependence or tight Midwest premiums in the near term. Under the Trump administration policy, projects that build, expand or refurbish U.S. smelters and meet approved investment milestones can import qualifying aluminum at a 25% tariff rate instead of the standard 50%. ING warned U.S. primary aluminum faces a structural supply shortfall: despite tariff protection, domestic smelter output has fallen and only four primary smelters remain in operation, so meaningful new capacity will take years. Fundamental constraints include the need for competitively priced, reliable power, multi‑bln dollar capital outlays, long‑term power purchase agreements, environmental approvals and multi‑year construction timelines. The fastest‑moving project is Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum’s planned 750,000 tpa Oklahoma smelter, but ING said it is unlikely to deliver material incremental U.S. supply before 2030. ING concluded the policy is a long‑term industrial measure rather than a short‑term remedy for U.S. primary aluminum shortages or procurement cost pressures; Midwest premiums are expected to remain elevated while import reliance continues.

TASNIM NEWS: Iran says strategic missile production has never stopped.