Markets expect the ECB to hold in July, with most banks seeing September as the next likely tightening opportunity and policymakers retaining communication flexibility rather than explicit forward guidance. Commerzbank, Société Générale, ING, Daiwa, TD Securities, Danske and others forecast a July hold; ING and some banks warn a surprise hike cannot be ruled out but expect hawkish signalling, while statements will likely avoid preset paths. Deutsche Bank still models a second and final 25bp hike

Markets expect the ECB to hold in July, with most banks seeing September as the next likely tightening opportunity and policymakers retaining communication flexibility rather than explicit forward guidance. Commerzbank, Société Générale, ING, Daiwa, TD Securities, Danske and others forecast a July hold; ING and some banks warn a surprise hike cannot be ruled out but expect hawkish signalling, while statements will likely avoid preset paths. Deutsche Bank still models a second and final 25bp hike to 2.50% in September; Mitsubishi UFJ and Nordea see a September +25bp as the main scenario if energy prices rebound; Nuveen and Morgan Stanley flag energy/geopolitical-driven oil upside as the key risk that could reopen tightening. Reuters survey: all 74 economists expect a July hold, and 52 of 74 foresee an additional ECB hike in 2026; Franklin expects a final hike in September, then a pause with easing beginning in 2027.