The euro ticked higher ahead of the European Central Bank policy decision later today. Markets largely expect the ECB to hold rates; the probability of a 25bp hike in September is about 84%. Investors will watch how the ECB responds to a rebound in oil prices tied to rising US‑Iran tensions. Antje Praefcke at Deutsche Bank said the ECB may consolidate September-hike expectations but the euro is unlikely to gain much as that view is already priced in. EUR/USD was up roughly 0.2% intraday.