UBS Investment Bank economists said in a note the Bank of England’s probability of raising rates in coming months has fallen as sluggish growth and a softer labour market reduce the case for further tightening. They said the Bank can address second‑round inflation risks by keeping policy at current restrictive levels for longer rather than hiking. Still, rising oil prices and some Monetary Policy Committee members’ tilt toward hikes mean a rate rise cannot be ruled out.

2026-07-23

UBS Investment Bank economists said in a note the Bank of England’s probability of raising rates in coming months has fallen as sluggish growth and a softer labour market reduce the case for further tightening. They said the Bank can address second‑round inflation risks by keeping policy at current restrictive levels for longer rather than hiking. Still, rising oil prices and some Monetary Policy Committee members’ tilt toward hikes mean a rate rise cannot be ruled out.