Turkey's central bank kept policy rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive
meeting on Thursday, in line with market expectations. A Middle East war and
higher energy prices are threatening fragile disinflation. Earlier this month
Brent topped $98/bbl as the regional conflict intensified, adding inflationary
pressure for energy-importing Turkey. Headline inflation fell about 0.5ppt in
June to 32.1% — the first slowdown since the conflict began. Before the US-Iran
conflict the central bank had progressively wound down one of emerging markets'
most aggressive tightening cycles; the war has put plans for easing on hold.
