Morgan Stanley analysts said that after the ECB held rates on Thursday the central bank is likely to raise rates in September. The ECB reiterated it remains well placed to respond to the energy-price shock; Morgan Stanley said this implies the ECB would consider further tightening if energy prices stay elevated, supporting a gradual policy squeeze. The ECB raised 25bps in June, and Morgan Stanley says a September hike would be consistent with its view.

2026-07-23

Morgan Stanley analysts said that after the ECB held rates on Thursday the central bank is likely to raise rates in September. The ECB reiterated it remains well placed to respond to the energy-price shock; Morgan Stanley said this implies the ECB would consider further tightening if energy prices stay elevated, supporting a gradual policy squeeze. The ECB raised 25bps in June, and Morgan Stanley says a September hike would be consistent with its view.