ECB President Lagarde said the mild scenario now looks rather unlikely.

Russian media on the 23rd quoted an Iranian military source saying Iran has war‑gamed multiple US attack scenarios and is prepared to repel a US ground invasion. The source said Iran has prepared multiple response plans for any new US strikes, especially if Washington were to launch a ground invasion, and warned another US strike on Iranian nuclear sites or infrastructure would draw a response "beyond US expectations." It added President Trump’s threats only prompt Iranian forces to raise readiness to resist a possible invasion.

Stronger-than-expected Australian June employment prompted interest-rate markets to lift bets on a Reserve Bank of Australia August rate hike. At market open odds of an August move were 25% and odds of a hike in the remainder of 2026 were 80%; after the data these rose to 33% and 95%, respectively. IG market strategist Tony Sycamore said the RBA would be concerned about a tightening labour market while inflation remains elevated.