Morgan Stanley strategists say recent data point to the Fed holding policy at its July meeting and potentially keeping rates unchanged for the rest of the year. They warn the Fed is losing patience with above-target inflation and that inflation’s path over the coming months is critical — if disinflation proceeds as expected the Fed may stay on hold, but failure to slow could prompt tightening later in the year. Money markets have priced in nearly two hikes by year-end. Morgan Stanley expects dis

Morgan Stanley strategists say recent data point to the Fed holding policy at its July meeting and potentially keeping rates unchanged for the rest of the year. They warn the Fed is losing patience with above-target inflation and that inflation’s path over the coming months is critical — if disinflation proceeds as expected the Fed may stay on hold, but failure to slow could prompt tightening later in the year. Money markets have priced in nearly two hikes by year-end. Morgan Stanley expects disinflation will allow the federal funds rate to remain at 3.50%-3.75% through the year.