Axios reports CENTCOM commander Cooper advised halting bombing operations around the Strait of Hormuz, saying the campaign’s effectiveness had reached its limit. That recommendation influenced Trump’s decision on Friday to pause planned strikes on Iran.

【期貨盯盤神器專屬文章】農產品市場分析：既然CBOT大豆11月合約已創合約新高，市場目標在何處？能否突破13美元？

CITIC Securities says the latest Middle East-driven second oil shock follows exhaustion of earlier buffers and is not a simple replay of the first shock; the most crowded trades in the two episodes differ, so Q2 market patterns are unlikely to repeat. The conflict is increasingly unpredictable and the risk of prolonged tension has risen, making short-term de-risking unavoidable. However, price, volume and sentiment indicators show the negative moves are largely reflected in near-term extreme declines and the de-risking phase is approaching its end. CITIC sees a high probability of broad rotational repair in August and favors three convergence trades: 1) narrowing of excess returns between AI-chain upstream hardware/price-sensitive names and downstream platform companies; 2) valuation catch-up of domestic non-AI industrials versus overseas peers; 3) convergence between tech and non-tech sectors.