Pictet Wealth Management says markets are pricing in unusually high odds of a Fed rate hike. Senior US economist Xiao Cui wrote that while a surprise hike cannot be ruled out, current market pricing appears excessive. US inflation data and Fed officials’ remarks support expectations the Fed will keep the funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% this week, but officials continue to view inflation as the primary policy risk, leaving the door open to tightening as early as September. Cui expects two FOMC members t

Pictet Wealth Management says markets are pricing in unusually high odds of a Fed rate hike. Senior US economist Xiao Cui wrote that while a surprise hike cannot be ruled out, current market pricing appears excessive. US inflation data and Fed officials’ remarks support expectations the Fed will keep the funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% this week, but officials continue to view inflation as the primary policy risk, leaving the door open to tightening as early as September. Cui expects two FOMC members to dissent in favor of a 25bp hike, and Kashkari may join them.