Distribution: 1 dove, 7 neutral, 10 hawks. Market implication: a hawkish
plurality increases the odds of additional tightening should core inflation
remain high. Powell (current voter) describes policy as at the high end of
neutral or mildly restrictive; labour is stabilising but inflation is still
“misbehaving,” so holding may be appropriate. Waller (current voter) needs
several consecutive months of lower readings to be confident; continued hot core
CPI would require near‑term hikes. Warsh (current voter) says recent inflation
prints do not fully reflect underlying inflation and is unsatisfied with
indicators; he will consider both balance‑sheet and rate tools. Cook (current
voter) prefers more time to see inflation evolve but is prepared to act if it
does not fall quickly. Kashkari (2026 voter) expects one rate hike in 2026 and
rates to remain unchanged in 2027 (he had previously envisioned a cut by
year‑end). Bowman (current voter) is the lone dove, saying it is too early to
judge the inflationary impact of the war and that prolonged oil gains would
force a reassessment. Williams and Jefferson (current voters) view inflation as
likely past its peak and to decline over coming quarters; Jefferson says current
policy can support labour while guiding inflation back to 2%. Barr flags
uncertainty over how an energy shock will feed into inflation and whether AI
will amplify or reduce income/wealth inequality. Several future voters (Paulson
2026, Hammack 2026, Logan 2026, Barkin 2027, Goolsbee 2027, Schmid 2028, Musalem
2028, Collins 2028) broadly say June data are encouraging but not decisive —
many want multiple months of disinflation before loosening and some warn
inflation persistence would justify continued restriction.
