TD Securities strategists say a Fed hold on Wednesday could prompt a reflexive dollar weakening. They expect rates to be left unchanged, with HAMMACK and Logan dissenting in favor of a hike. Any short-term dollar softness is likely capped because markets still price further Fed hikes through the remainder of 2026. TD expects the Fed to offer little forward guidance, reiterate its commitment to price stability, and note recent declines in inf while stressing inf remains elevated.

State Taxation Administration told a State Council press briefing that the 2025 individual income tax reconciliation, which closed on June 30, produced refunds of more than 150 billion yuan to over 100 million taxpayers. More than 200 million taxpayers filed reconciliation returns, a 4.38% YoY increase. After the 60,000 yuan basic deduction plus social insurance, housing fund and special additional deductions, taxpayers with annual income ≤120,000 yuan are largely exempt or pay minimal tax; over 70% of that cohort owed no tax after reconciliation. Among taxpayers who still owed tax, more than 60% were taxed at the 3% bracket, reflecting that recent IIT adjustments have further concentrated benefits on lower-income earners.

India's manufacturing output rose 7.8% YoY in June.